Fertilizer has been falling lately and depending on who you are talking to the bids are quite variable. If you have not purchased any fertilizer yet this fall now might be a good time to begin to chip away at some inventory. With prices in the 600-700 range, prices are considerably lower than 5 months ago. Do not fall into the trap of continuing to hold out for more extreme pricing. The recent drop may be the reality going forward or it may be a short term downward blip. I don’t think that anyone knows. Many farmers were burnt this past year by not applying the art of incremental selling of their crops by holding out for $20 canola. Incremental buying works under the same principal and is just as effective.
I cant agree with you more. It is all about risk management. No one ever buys all their fertilizer right at the very bottom of the market and no one ever sells all their crop at the top of the market. AND IF YOU HAVE YOU GOT LUCKY! Manage your risk and buy a 1/4 or a 1/3 of your fertilizer needs to ensure supply and use a cost moving average.