We have moved from bizarre optimism to pessimism. StatsCan came out this week stating that canola acres would be just short of 15 million acres. This is in line with my thoughts back on March 21, 2009, when I said there would not be 17 million canola acres. To widen the range even more I talked to an industry insider today who predicted 13.5 million acres based on the seed that has been sold so far. so feel free to bet on canola acres somewhere between 13.5 and 17 million acres. The morale of the story is that no one has any clue what is going to happen over the next four weeks.
On April 24th, Mike Jubinville of ProFarmer Canada commented on SyngentaFarm, that canola acreage usually increases in subsequent StasCan reports.
In the same story….”Keith Ferley, a canola broker with Union securities in Winnipeg, said farmers were still very much up in the air with regards to their cropping decisions when the StatsCan planting intentions survey was actually undertaken in March.”
The reality is that the canola acreage will most likely be lower than the original forecasts. I am still betting in the 15 million acre region but only time will tell if the latest StatsCan report and myself are correct.