RealAg Markets: Big Canola Crop & Fickle Buyers Could Limit Canola Market Upside


About this time last year, the canola crop’s respectable acreage base and promising production was being consumed by disease pressure, the bizarre looking aster yellows and then came the Billion Dollar Wind that shook and shattered seeds all over the ground. As we approach swathing and even harvest of the 2013 crop, however, the crop looks to be a monster. Many of the yield robbing pressures did not materialize, and, barring an early frost (there was a report of 0 degrees near Drumheller this week) or another Mighty Wind (let’s give that 5-1 odds), Western Canadian farmers stand to bring in a bin-buster. How big? Perhaps over the 16 million tonne mark, some suggest, though Stats Can’s report this week pegs it just under the 15 MT mark at 14.7 MT.

That is, of course, not exactly great news for crop prices, as you’ll hear Chuck Penner, of Leftfield Commodity Research, discuss in the RealAg Market Update feature above, or by clicking here. That said, Canada’s robust domestic crushing industry and world markets can chew through big tonnage, can’t it? The demand side is where the second piece of the puzzles fits, and it’s not a pretty picture. With reports of French rapeseed moving into Mexico and China buying veg oil from Ukraine and Australia, Canadian farmers may be wise to capitalize on selling opportunities as they present themselves.

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