Statistics Canada published its 2014 March Farm Survey findings, which summarized seeding intentions outlined by roughly 11, 500 farmers in Canada. The survey was conducted from March 24-31, 2014. According to national estimates:

  • Wheat area could
    decrease by 4.8%Screen Shot 2014-04-24 at 10.16.57 AM
  • Soybean acres are expected to increase by 16.5%
  • Canola acreage may see a 0.7%drop
  • Grain corn could decrease by 8.7%
  • Dry field peas may climb by a whopping 21.0%
  • Barley acres could decline by 10.9% and
  • Oat acres are expected to see a +0.6% change

That’s sure a lot of “may” and “could.” But, that’s not to be unexpected, with many growers either undecided, willing to change their minds or too busy to answer the survey.

We’d like to know what you think. Do these results seem accurate? Can Canada expect to see 24.8 million acres of wheat? 5.3 million acres of soybeans? 19.8 million acres of canola? How will your acres change? Do you participate in Statistics Canada surveys? Does your individual level of accuracy/participation impact your trust in the findings? Let us know.

6 thoughts on “How Accurate are Statistics Canada’s 2014 Crop Acre Estimates?

  1. From an supplier standpoint, Stats Canada numbers are very important. Many crop protection products have long lead times, so forecasting as much as 2 years in advance is critical to get supply of certain raw materials. We manage global demand by having tech supply as long as possible, then as we get closer to the season, the final end use products are made. The foundation of good product forecasts are acre forecasts, as we finalize manufacturing plans. If the numbers are way out, it can lead to product shortages. I hope and trust that farmers participate when Stats Canada calls and give as accurate numbers as possible at the time. Recognize that with volatile markets, decisions are not solid this early, but at least gives us a feeling of the sentiment. Thanks everyone! Kelly Bennett, Dow AgroSciences, Cereal Broadleaf Herbicide Portfolio Manager

  2. The lady from Statistics Canada phoned me the other day and asked me what my seeding intentions were for this year, my seeded acres for last year and the year before, grain stored on the farm December 31 and total farm storage, among other things. I said that I didn’t have my accurate figures right then and she said “just guess.” When I suggested that the results would not be very accurate if everyone just guessed she didn’t seem to care. I asked her exactly what information she needed and had her phone back that night after I had a chance to look the information up.

    I don’t base my farming decisions on their information because it’s just a guess.

  3. As far as Stats Can numbers are concerned if you wanted a bit of a handle on it just do a co-relational analysis on their past numbers …go back a number of years…and compare them to actual seeded or tonnes numbers…and come up with some kind of adjustment factor…if it’s done on enough years the fudge factor should be accurate……??!!!

  4. As much as input companies use stats can reports as a tool, speculators and grain companies use it for price setting. While any other profession would never give up information such as inventories and intentions for free we are expected to hand it over with no compensation. Unless a rep from stats can comes to my place and presents credentials I am very slow to give any info out. I believe it hurts us much more than it helps. Lets let competition be the way inputs and prices are set. Aren’t we in a free market?

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