How Accurate are Statistics Canada's 2014 Crop Acre Estimates?

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Statistics Canada published its 2014 March Farm Survey findings, which summarized seeding intentions outlined by roughly 11, 500 farmers in Canada. The survey was conducted from March 24-31, 2014. According to national estimates:

  • Wheat area could
    decrease by 4.8%Screen Shot 2014-04-24 at 10.16.57 AM
  • Soybean acres are expected to increase by 16.5%
  • Canola acreage may see a 0.7%drop
  • Grain corn could decrease by 8.7%
  • Dry field peas may climb by a whopping 21.0%
  • Barley acres could decline by 10.9% and
  • Oat acres are expected to see a +0.6% change

That’s sure a lot of “may” and “could.” But, that’s not to be unexpected, with many growers either undecided, willing to change their minds or too busy to answer the survey.

We’d like to know what you think. Do these results seem accurate? Can Canada expect to see 24.8 million acres of wheat? 5.3 million acres of soybeans? 19.8 million acres of canola? How will your acres change? Do you participate in Statistics Canada surveys? Does your individual level of accuracy/participation impact your trust in the findings? Let us know.

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