The End of the Growing Season? Drew Lerner’s Frost Forecast

Following the snow in parts of Alberta on Monday, weather models are indicating the 2014 growing season will likely come to an end across much of Western Canada this week.

 Average first fall frost - 50% risk of reaching 0 degrees C (Nadler, 2007)

Date of average first fall frost — 50% risk of reaching 0 degrees C (Nadler, 2007)

 Average first fall frost - 50% risk of reaching -2.2 degrees C (Nadler, 2007)

Date of average first fall “killing” frost — 50% risk of reaching -2.2 degrees C (Nadler, 2007)

It’s not what any farmers want to hear, but the first widespread killing frost is expected to arrive over the next few nights, says Drew Lerner, senior meteorologist with World Weather Inc., in the following interview.

“For all practical purposes, this is the end,” he says, noting temperatures will likely dip down to between -1 and -5 degrees Celsius across much of Alberta and Saskatchewan. Southern Manitoba and southeast Saskatchewan, as well as a pocket in southwest Alberta, might not experience a hard frost, but will likely see some damage to immature crops, says Lerner.

“That leaves us with the majority of Alberta, and the majority of western, southern and central sections of Saskatchewan. All of those areas will definitely see a meaningful freeze and the end of the growing season,” he explains.

He says the area that will see crop-killing temperatures could extend south into northern South Dakota, with all of Montana and most of North Dakota seeing temperatures in the -1 to -3 degree range.

Related: Canola School: Swathing Before or After Frost

Drew Lerner shares his outlook for frost with Kelvin Heppner:

If you can’t see the audio above, click here.

 

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