Higher Wheat Production Estimates from the USDA Weigh on Wheat Prices


New crop wheat futures fell from recent highs on Wednesday after the USDA published some larger-than-expected wheat supply projections.

The USDA’s June reports were not friendly for prices across the board, says Neil Townsend of CWB Market Research in our conversation below. (Read the WASDE report here and the Crop Production estimates here.)

Along with slightly larger domestic production, he notes the USDA also bumped up its wheat production estimates for Russia.

September wheat futures in Minneapolis have recently been bouncing around in a 60 cent range, from $5.40 to $6 per bushel. They traded as high as $5.97 on Wednesday before closing at $5.77.

“I think it’s going to run into upside resistance without having more evidence of particularly bad weather, which we might get. It might be ugly in Western Saskatchewan, but ultimately that’s going to be more of a durum thing than a straight wheat thing,” says Townsend.

The next USDA report day will be on June 30th, when the department will share its acreage estimates. Statistics Canada is also scheduled to release updated Canadian acreage estimates on June 30th.

Related: This Week in the Markets — Pivotal Weather Events, Finding Premiums & Production Risk

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