Statistics Canada today released its estimates of principal field crop stocks to July 31, 2015, including a bearish supply estimate for the canola market (see table below).

Not surprisingly, most major crop totals were down substantially year-over-year, as 2014 levels reflected the stock still in the pipeline from the 2013 bumper crop.

Total stocks of wheat decreased 32.0% from the same date in 2014 to 7.1 million tonnes. Saskatchewan posted the biggest decline in stocks, where volumes were reduced by just over 50%.

At the national level, end of July canola stocks fell 22.8% to 2.3 million tonnes as a result of a 46.5% decline in on-farm stocks, as commercial stocks increased 17.5%. The canola estimate came in almost a million tonnes larger than analysts were expecting, meaning there might not have to be as much demand rationing as anticipated (See Tweet below for discussion.)

Story continues below table:

Table: Total stocks of principal field crops to July 31, 2015.

StatsCan production estimates to July 31


According to StatsCan, barley stocks declined 37.6% to 1.2 million tonnes, and total stocks of oats fell 35.4% to 681,000 tonnes. On-farm stock levels led this decline, falling 42.2%. Commercial stocks, by comparison, declined 3.3%.

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