Statistics Canada today released its estimates of principal field crop stocks to July 31, 2015, including a bearish supply estimate for the canola market (see table below).
Not surprisingly, most major crop totals were down substantially year-over-year, as 2014 levels reflected the stock still in the pipeline from the 2013 bumper crop.
Total stocks of wheat decreased 32.0% from the same date in 2014 to 7.1 million tonnes. Saskatchewan posted the biggest decline in stocks, where volumes were reduced by just over 50%.
At the national level, end of July canola stocks fell 22.8% to 2.3 million tonnes as a result of a 46.5% decline in on-farm stocks, as commercial stocks increased 17.5%. The canola estimate came in almost a million tonnes larger than analysts were expecting, meaning there might not have to be as much demand rationing as anticipated (See Tweet below for discussion.)
Story continues below table:
Table: Total stocks of principal field crops to July 31, 2015.
According to StatsCan, barley stocks declined 37.6% to 1.2 million tonnes, and total stocks of oats fell 35.4% to 681,000 tonnes. On-farm stock levels led this decline, falling 42.2%. Commercial stocks, by comparison, declined 3.3%.
Stats Can stocks of principal field crops as of July 31st. #canola way out from estimates, not sure why #westcdnag pic.twitter.com/k3QsjnxkBi
— Brian Voth (@Brian_Voth) September 3, 2015
Stats Canada cut #Durum stocks to 982,000T. 44% lower than 2014. This is positive info for prices. #westcdnag #skag #abag
— Grain Shark (@GrainShark) September 3, 2015
Haha #math, not #statscanada strong point… from @GrainMktCoach. That's some real margin of error #westcdnag pic.twitter.com/TXtN4L5112
— Brian Voth (@Brian_Voth) September 3, 2015
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