More Wheat, Less Canola Than Expected in StatsCan Production Report

Statistics Canada issued its “final” crop production estimates for 2016 on Tuesday morning, leaving it up to the market to interpret how much crop was harvested after the agency surveyed producers.

The November Farm Survey was conducted between October 21 and November 13 — just as farmers in Alberta and Saskatchewan were getting back into the field after several weeks of snow and rain made it look like the 2016 harvest could be over.

Despite the timing, StatsCan says “farmers in the affected areas were asked to provide their best estimates for their total crop production.”

Ken Ball of PI Financial discussed the StatsCan report, as well as some wheat news from Australia, on the Tuesday edition of RealAg Radio.

Some highlights:

  • The all-wheat figure was higher than expected, coming in at 31.7 million tonnes — about 1 million tonnes above the average pre-report estimate.
  • The national average wheat yield was 53.2 bushels per acre in 2016, up 24 percent from 42.8 bushels per acre in 2015.
  • The total canola production estimate of 18.4 million metric tonnes was below the average trade guess, but within the expected range of 18 to 19.6 million tonnes.
  • Average canola yield was a record 42.3 bu/ac, with Alberta at 46.4.
  • Corn production was pegged 13.2 million tonnes — just slightly higher than the trade was expecting, with an average yield of 158.7 bushels per acre.
  • Soybean production set a record high for the eighth consecutive year, at 6.5 million tonnes. While Ontario production dropped 9.5 percent, Manitoba soybean production rose 27.2 percent.
  • Manitoba farmers produced provincial record corn and soybean yields of 139.4 and 41.3 bu/ac, respectively.
  • Barley production rose 6.8 percent to 8.8 million tonnes in 2016, partly due to a record high national yield of 73.4 bu/ac.
  • Oat production fell 8.2 percent from 2015 to 3.1 million tonnes, despite a record average yield of 92.3 bu/ac. The trade was expecting around 2.9 million tonnes of production.
  • Lentil production reached a record high in 2016, with output up 27.9 percent from a year earlier to 3.2 million tonnes.
  • Unharvested acres? The difference between StatsCan’s seeded and harvested acreage estimates for canola in the prairie provinces exceeds 1.1 million, with the difference for wheat coming in around 1.3 million (see tweet below.)

The estimates can be revised for two years.

StatsCan production estimates (metric tonnes):

statscan-dec-6-2016-production
(Dec 6, 2016)

Related: Canola Supplies Could Run Tight With Crushers Off to Strong Start

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