August USDA report makes analysts shake their heads

The condition of the United States corn and soybean crop drives much of the sentiment on agricultural commodities. The weather stress of 2017 has created much discussion among farmers and analysts that the U.S. crop will be lower than trend line yield.

Apparently the USDA does not agree with farmers or market analysts.

The USDA reported Thursday, its August crop production report with a average corn yield of 169.5 bushels and soybeans at 49.4 bushels.  As you can see in the tweet below from Karen Braun, both of these USDA yield estimates are above trade estimates.

Here is some of the reaction on Twitter:

If crop ratings are down again Monday @USDA @SecretarySonny you should be able to raise soy yield to 50 and corn over 170. Embarrassment!

— Jason Britt (@jasonlbritt) August 10, 2017

USDA: #Corn yield 169.5 bpa, #soybeans 49.4 bpa. Both of these numbers overshot the high end of the trade range. pic.twitter.com/OGUwroLArP

— Karen Braun (@kannbwx) August 10, 2017

With all the problems in IN this yr yield forecast is unch v last yr at 173.0… #corn

— Darin D. Fessler (@DDFalpha) August 10, 2017

State-by-state breakdown on yield for #soybeans. Guess USDA has a lot of faith in those minor states to pull up the national. #harvest17 pic.twitter.com/P4aBGpoeIw

— Karen Braun (@kannbwx) August 10, 2017

We will see in the coming weeks if the USDA is right or whether farmers have the better insight on lower yields.

Analyst Matthew Pot will join us on RealAg Radio this afternoon to discuss the USDA numbers. (Listen to Arlan Suderman of INTL FC Stone’s explanation of how the corn yield number is determined on yesterday’s show.)