StatsCan production report: canola and wheat production down but soybeans production up big

StatsCan released its production estimates for principal field crops and not surprisingly the estimated production is down in comparison to 2016.

You can find the entire StatsCan report here

Here is how some market analysts reacted to the report. There is some doubt as you would expect on some of the numbers released.

Brian Voth provides a full table of the report to get a better understanding of what StatsCan is saying and how it compares to the past three years.

#statscan production estimates.#canola lower than expected at 18.2 mmt #westcdnag pic.twitter.com/l5zoFoy1Gp

— Brian Voth (@Brian_Voth) August 31, 2017

A look at comparing 2017 to 2016.  Wheat down 19.5% and canola down 7.2%.  Remember this is a lower canola estimate with potentially record acres.

#StatsCan: #canola: 18.2MMT (-7.2% YoY)
total #wheat: 25.5MMT (-19.5%)#barley: 7.2MMT (-8%)#corn: 13.6M (+3.6%)#soybeans: 7.7M (+19.8%)

— FarmLead.com (@FarmLead) August 31, 2017

The spring wheat future reacts to the Statscan wheat estimates.

#minneapolis #wheat doesn’t like #statscan. #understated #springwheat pic.twitter.com/cOxHTYznqg

— Brian Comeault (@BComeault) August 31, 2017

In regards to the durum estimate which was much lower than the market expectations.  StatsCan is estimating a decline in durum prouction of 49.8%.

No one should believe that number. The survey dates tell the story. That’s an implied yield of 28.1 bu/ac.

— Brian Comeault (@BComeault) August 31, 2017

There will be much debate on the canola production estimate. Canola will no doubt have the most variable yield due to heat and drought stress. Many farmers complained of short flowering windows this year which are not indicative of high yields.

Canadian #canola reported at 18.2 mmt today. Will ultimately be proven to be 20.5 or higher. #timestamp

— LoneWolf (@Lwolf79) August 31, 2017

Chick Penner gives more fuel to teh canola production number discussion because as he shows, StatsCan has a history or budgeting low in August.

StatsCan canola estimate track record. Notice a pattern? Aug 17 est of 18.2 mln largest Aug est yet. pic.twitter.com/Nf5J2x1gEW

— Chuck_Penner (@LeftFieldCR) August 31, 2017