The federal Liberals’ reluctance to show that they want to move forward on the Trans-Pacific Partnership could be due to competition for votes in certain Ontario, Quebec and B.C. ridings in 2019, according to a trade expert with the Canada West Foundation.
It’s difficult to get an answer on why Canada has not been more aggressive in pushing to get the deal signed, says Carlo Dade, who’s also a senior fellow with the University of Ottawa.
The best explanation, he says in the interview below, is the Liberals are concerned about hanging on to seats in left-leaning ridings.
“This government’s more concerned about progressive trade than it is about trade. It’s more concerned about votes in Ontario and Quebec than votes in the West,” he says.
“It’s not a conversation they’re addressing to the average Canadian…it’s a conversation they’re having with certain parts of Quebec and Ontario,” he continues. “The fight for votes in parts of B.C., Quebec and Ontario, it’s going to cost us. It’s going to cost us the single best opportunity we’ve had.”
Dade was one of the authors of a report released back in June that showed all 11 remaining countries still stand to benefit from ratifying the TPP, even though the U.S. has withdrawn. The terms written in the 5,500+ page agreement are better than anything Canada could have negotiated bilaterally, particularly when it comes to market access in Japan and Vietnam, he says.
“The Americans essentially did all the hard work, and just as it comes time to cash in, they’re getting up from the table, throwing the cards down and pushing the chips across the table to us. It just doesn’t get any better than this,” he says.
Canada remains engaged in the negotiations with the 11 remaining countries, including a meeting in Australia last week. However, Dade says the recent language being used by Canadian trade officials reminds him of the messaging that preceded failed bilateral negotiations with Korea.
— Kelvin Heppner (@RealAg_Kelvin) August 16, 2017
Dade shared his research findings during the foreign trade meeting at the Canadian Beef Industry Conference in Calgary. The meeting also included a phone briefing by trade officials with Global Affairs Canada, which Dade references in our conversation — listen here:
- Is Canada dragging its feet on TPP?
- U.S. and Canadian beef groups still clamouring for TPP
- RealAg Radio, June 16: Amazon to buy Whole Foods, TPP gains without the U.S., and cattle prices drop off