Is this a seasonal slump or something bigger?

Grain markets almost always take a dive as harvest approaches and new supplies hit the market, but the big question for marketing is — will prices rebound or stay at lower levels?

“I’ve been doing this for quite a few years and every year I kind of get sucked in a little by it, and I think a lot of other people do too,” says Chuck Penner of LeftField Commodity Research, in the interview below. “We think this is part of a long term trend, but it’s always good to go back to those seasonals, and see we’re at the point right now in late August, early September where, for a number of crops, is when the seasonal low in prices happens.”

Chuck Penner

On the other side, the April-May timeframe is when the seasonal highs are set for many crops.

“So pick away at sales, but it’s a situation where you want to have at least one eye on those seasonal charts,” he says.

Penner joined us on RealAg Radio on Thursday to discuss harvest results, StatsCan estimates, why canola futures haven’t followed soybeans lately, and whether these lower prices are here to stay:

Related: Finally a bullish report, or was it?

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