Cool in the east, dry in the west & similarities to 1936: Drew Lerner’s summer outlook

(Photo by Owen Jones; CC BY-SA 2.0)

A transition between weather patterns over the next three weeks will go a long way in determining the kind of weather we can expect for the rest of summer, while potentially offering some short-term relief in dry areas, according to Drew Lerner of World Weather Inc.

Lerner joined RealAg Radio on Wednesday to discuss his outlook for summer, which includes a comparison to the summer of *gulp * 1936:

Below normal temps in Ontario and Quebec

Stretches of cool temperatures will continue in eastern Canada, resulting in a slow maturing crop, and slower evaporation rates for areas that are off to another wet start, he says.

“The scary thing for these areas in Ontario and Quebec is we are in a pattern where cold air will still come and go throughout the summer in these areas, so we’re going to be seeing slow drying rates. They’ll have moments of warm weather too, but it’s going to be an ongoing discussion about the coolness this year.”

More dry weather for the Prairies

The 2018 crop in much of Western Canada, with the exception of western parts of Alberta, is going to need just-in-time rainfall, says Lerner.

“What we will probably end up doing is living from one rain event to the next, constantly in need of more moisture,” he says.

He says there will likely be some relief, as we’ve already seen in some areas in the last few days, with the weather pattern transitioning over the next three weeks.

“It could be enough to improve topsoil moisture in several areas so crops that are struggling with germination and establishment can go ahead and get going, and maybe tap into some of the subsoil moisture that is present,” says Lerner.

The ridge that’s been over Western Canada recently will likely be knocked down as part of the transition, he says. If a new ridge sets up and intensifies from Texas to northern Saskatchewan, the Prairies will likely see heat without significant moisture, says Lerner.

Similarities to 1936

“One of the years that kind of fits to the scenario we’ve had so far, unfortunately, is 1936. 1936 was a terrible drought year, but the biggest difference (this year) is we have the solar cycle on our side because it’ll make the eastern part of North America a bit cooler with some rain over there that should shrink down the size of the dry region,” he says. “But there’s so much land in the western part of North America that is so dry right now that the 1936 thing really scares me a little bit. Whatever rain we can get over these next few weeks is going to make a huge difference.”

Drew Lerner discusses his spring and summer outlook with RealAgriculture’s Shaun Haney:

 

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