WASDE report shows bullish signs but market reacts cautiously...so far

Farmers across North America have been looking for an opportunity to experience higher prices for grain commodities. The USDA’s May WASDE report, including the first ending stock estimates for 2018-19, was released on Thursday. On the surface, it looked like higher prices could be possible with the smaller-than-expect global supply estimates, but the market hardly reacted.

Most of the attention was given to the global corn ending stocks, coming in at 159.2 million MT and how it did not move the market higher as much as many thought it would with an average analyst prediction of 182 million MT.

“Very cautious/skeptical reaction by the markets to today’s USDA report,” tweeted Arlan Suderman of INTL FCStone.

The same feeling was shared by Chip Flory, host of Agritalk After the Bell, who noted “USDA went further than most expected in terms of global stocks, but not much reaction from the market, especially in corn. Really the market reaction was a head scratcher. You have to wonder if the battleship is turning for corn.”

Below is a summary by Matthew Pot of Grain Perspectives on the global ending stock findings. USDA reported corn, soybeans and wheat ending stocks lower than analysts predicted.

Meanwhile, the domestic U.S. ending stock numbers were more bearish.

Kelvin Heppner and I discussed the WASDE report on RealAg Radio on Thursday:

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