Farmers across North America have been looking for an opportunity to experience higher prices for grain commodities. The USDA’s May WASDE report, including the first ending stock estimates for 2018-19, was released on Thursday. On the surface, it looked like higher prices could be possible with the smaller-than-expect global supply estimates, but the market hardly reacted.
Most of the attention was given to the global corn ending stocks, coming in at 159.2 million MT and how it did not move the market higher as much as many thought it would with an average analyst prediction of 182 million MT.
“Very cautious/skeptical reaction by the markets to today’s USDA report,” tweeted Arlan Suderman of INTL FCStone.
The same feeling was shared by Chip Flory, host of Agritalk After the Bell, who noted “USDA went further than most expected in terms of global stocks, but not much reaction from the market, especially in corn. Really the market reaction was a head scratcher. You have to wonder if the battleship is turning for corn.”
My friend @boltmarketing1 makes a fantastic observation:
New crop world corn stocks to use ratio is 14.5%. The second tightest since 1974.
— Angie Setzer (@GoddessofGrain) May 10, 2018
Below is a summary by Matthew Pot of Grain Perspectives on the global ending stock findings. USDA reported corn, soybeans and wheat ending stocks lower than analysts predicted.
2018/19 Global #Grain Ending Stocks: #OATT
– #corn, #soybeans and #wheat all reported on the lower end of pre-report trade estimates. pic.twitter.com/iDtW8CG33r— Matthew Pot (@MatthewPot) May 10, 2018
Meanwhile, the domestic U.S. ending stock numbers were more bearish.
2018/19 U.S. #Grain Ending Stocks: #OATT
– #corn and #wheat slightly higher than average trade estimate.
– #soybeans at the lower end of trade estimates. pic.twitter.com/Yu0W0l89Ew— Matthew Pot (@MatthewPot) May 10, 2018
Kelvin Heppner and I discussed the WASDE report on RealAg Radio on Thursday:
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