StatsCan brings acreage estimates back in line with expectations

After delivering some big surprises in its seeding intentions report back in April, Statistics Canada moved more in line with market expectations in its seeded acreage report published on Friday morning, ahead of the USDA’s latest acreage estimates.

The report was based on a survey of approximately 24,500 farms between May 11 and June 12, with farmers being asked to report their areas seeded to each crop.

Highlights

 

Wheat

  • All-wheat acres are estimated at 24.7 million, down from 25.3 million in StatsCan’s April report
  • The market was expecting all-wheat acres to land between 24 and 25.7 million
  • Spring wheat is pegged at 17.3 million, down from 18.2 million in the April estimate
  • Durum acreage is projected at 6.2 million, up from 5.8 million in April (trade estimates ranged from 5.5 to 6.2 million)

Canola

  • Canola acreage is estimated at 22.7 million, up from the too-low projection of 21.4 million in April, but still below last year’s acreage of just under 23 million
  • The trade was expecting the canola number to fall between 21.3 and 23.7 million

A Statistics Canada infographic showing overall acreage estimates, as well as the top 3 crops by province, in the June 29th report. (click to enlarge)

Barley

  • Barley is expected to pass soybeans as the third largest acreage crop in 2018, with area estimated at 6.5 million acres, up from 5.8 last year
  • Pre-report estimates ranged from 6 to 6.4 million acres of barley

Soybeans

  • Soybean acreage is projected at 6.3 million, down from 7.3 million in 2017 and an estimate of 6.5 million back in April
  • The trade was expecting between 6.4 and 6.8 million acres of soybeans
  • Prairie soybean acreage has dropped for the first time since 2007, with Manitoba soybean area pegged at 1.9 million acres, down from 2.0 million in the April report and 2.3 million last year. Saskatchewan soybean acreage is estimated at 408 thousand, down from 850 thousand last year

Lentils

  • Lentil area is estimated at 3.7 million acres, down from an estimated 4.1 million acres in the April report and 4.4 million in 2017
  • Pre-report estimates ranged from 3.75 to 4 million

Corn

  • Grain corn acres are pegged at 3.6 million, up less than two percent from last year, and down slightly from StatsCan’s April estimate of 3.8 million

Peas

  • Pea acres are projected at 3.6 million, down from 3.9 million in the April report and from 4.1 million in 2017
  • The trade was expecting 3.5 to 3.9 million acres

Oats

  • Oat area is pegged at 3.1 million, almost unchanged from the April report, and down slightly from 3.2 million in 2017
  • Pre-report estimates ranged from 2.9 to 3.3 million

Other notables

  • Chickpea acreage has ballooned from 160,000 last year to 468,900, according to StatsCan
  • Flax area has dropped from 1,040,000 acres in 2017 to 885,000 in 2018

Statistics Canada will publish its first production estimates on August 31, which will be based on a farm survey conducted in July.

Join us on RealAg Radio this afternoon at 4pm eastern on Rural Radio 147 on SiriusXM for more on today’s StatsCan and USDA reports with Matthew Pot of Grain Perspectives and Dwight Nichol of DLN AgVentures.

Related:

 

Kelvin Heppner

Kelvin Heppner is a field editor and radio host for RealAgriculture and RealAg Radio. He's been reporting on agriculture on the prairies and across Canada since 2008(ish). He farms with his family near Altona, Manitoba, and is on Twitter at @realag_kelvin. @realag_kelvin

Trending

Wheat prices jump into August — This week in the grain markets

This week, winter wheat prices touched a three-year high, but it didn’t last. Chicago SRW wheat prices for September 2018 gained 5 per cent or about 26 cents US/bushel to close at $5.56. While the December 2018 contract was up 5.4 percent — or nearly 30 cents — to finish a tad under $5.80. In…Read more »

Related

Leave a Reply

 

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.