The U.S. government shutdown meant grain markets missed out on a few months of WASDE reports. With a return to at least some capacity, the USDA released a much-anticipated WASDE on Friday.
To run through what few surprises were included in the latest report, RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney calls on Ted Seifried, vice president and chief market strategist of Zaner Ag Hedge.
Seifried says there really wasn’t much in the report outside of trade expectations, but there are a few numbers of interest. The corn number he can live with he says (acres and production are right on trade expectations), but it’s the ethanol number — down 25 million bushels — that he’ll keep an eye one. “If things keep going the way they have been for ethanol … we could add those corn bushels back to the balance sheet,” he says.
Brazil’s estimated production was left unchanged, but raised Argentinian to 46 mmt, a big jump, which could continue to climb, and Brazil’s number could climb as well, because of decent growing conditions.
Reading between the lines for corn, it’s not really a bearish report, but there are certainly some things to keep an eye on on the production side, he says.
As for soybeans, he says, those number came in very close to expectation. Overall the report is neutral to slightly bullish soybeans, but the true numbers for soy stocks is bearish — it all comes down to deal or no deal with China. A deal by the end of the month could wipe so many tonnes from that carryover number, changing this picture significantly, he says. It’s all just wait and see right now.
Hear more from Ted Seifried and Shaun Haney in his segment on RealAg Radio which aired Feb. 8, 2019.