Flipping the calendar at this time of year is less about leaving something behind and more about looking ahead — in this case, it’s on to planting and seeding. For areas of the southern U.S., time is already ticking and wet conditions are holding back planting, even while farmers in Ontario and parts of the U.S. midwest stare down a huge snowpack.
Weather and planting conditions aside, there are political concerns weighing down markets and weighing on farmers minds as they finalize crop rotation choices. Arlan Suderman, with INTL FC Stone, says that the uneasiness in the markets is warranted, as much of North America awaits the word on a resolution to the U.S./China trade issues. In the space of waiting on positive or negative news, markets continue to erode lower, he says.
There’s a large soybean carryout to worry about, plus there are reports that hog feeding in China could be down 20%. Wheat has been doing the best at trading this issue, Suderman says, and corn has been pulled down by both crops’ dynamics.
Suderman adds that we’re on pace for record canola crush for North America, but even in the face of increased biodiesel demand larger oil supplies may drag on prices.
Is corn going to lead this market higher? That’s very possible, Suderman says, as outside of the U.S. and China, most other corn markets are functioning under just-in-time supply and that’s only if we see normal/average conditions and production moving forward
Hog prices are also suffering, as the anticipated higher demand predicated on the African swine fever fallout overseas hasn’t materialized — if anything there’s been a larger than anticipated move away from pork consumption even in the face of higher protein prices in other markets.
Hear more from Arlan Suderman as he joins Shaun Haney for this RealAg Radio segment from Commodity Classic: