World wheat supplies up, global oilseed exports down, and changes ahead for WASDE

In its monthly release of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) says world wheat supplies are up, along with coarse grain production, while the global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include increased production, lower exports, and increased stocks compared to last month.

Also to note, the USDA says there will be three adjustments to next month’s report. Those changes include:

• Price range forecasts will be eliminated in favour of single price points for all crops and livestock;
• The international Supply and Use tables for crops will include an aggregate value for “World less China,” representing the balance sheet values outside of China; and,
• The ordering of countries and lists of Major Importers/Exporters will be updated to eliminate outdated aggregations (such as “Former Soviet Union”), and better reflect current trade patterns.

Wheat

World wheat supplies are raised 2.1 million tons due mainly to increased beginning stocks that largely reflect multi-year revisions for Iran.

Continuing with wheat, the department notes global production and exports are each reduced fractionally, but domestic consumption is lowered 2.9 million tons as the consumption change stems primarily from lower Iran and EU feed and residual use. Iran is lowered on the series revision and the EU reduction is based on more competitive corn prices and increased coarse grain disappearance. With supplies increasing and total use declining, global ending stocks are raised 5.1 million tons to 275.6 million.

Coarse grains

The global coarse grain production is up 5.3 million tons to 1,377.2 million. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is based on larger production, increased trade, greater use, and marginally higher stocks relative to last month. Brazil corn production is up, reflecting improved yield prospects for second-crop corn. Argentina corn is higher based on expectations of larger production area. Corn production is up for the EU, Mexico, and Indonesia, with reductions for the Philippines and Pakistan.

Major global trade changes for 2018/19 include higher projected corn exports for Brazil, Argentina, the EU, and Ukraine with a partially offsetting reduction for the United States. Corn imports are up for the EU and South Africa, with lower projections for Vietnam and Bangladesh. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2018/19 are raised from last month, mostly reflecting increases for Mexico, Indonesia and South Africa that more than offset declines for Vietnam, Brazil, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Argentina.

Oilseeds

The 2018/19 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include increased production, lower exports, and increased stocks compared to last month. Global oilseed production is up 2 million tons to 595.0 million, mainly on higher soybean production for Brazil and rapeseed production for India. Production for Brazil  increased 0.5 million tons to 117.0 million, reflecting favourable weather in Rio Grande do Sul where the crop is in pod-filling and in maturation stages. Rapeseed production for India is raised 1.4 million tons to 8 million on information from India’s Solvent Extractors’ Association.

Global oilseed exports are reduced 1.0 million tons to 177.1 million mainly on lower rapeseed trade between Canada and China. With lower rapeseed crush for China, imports are increased for other products, including sunflower seed meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, and soybean oil. Global oilseed ending stocks are raised 1.5 million tons to 123.2 million, largely due to higher soybean stocks for Brazil and rapeseed stocks for Canada.

The full report and can be found by clicking here.