U.S. corn yields face trendline challenge with low planting progress

The weather in the U.S. midwest has been less than spectacular as rain continues to fall on an already saturated land base. And for many growers, the end of May is truly go time.

According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), as of May 28, growers are only 58 per cent complete planting corn. This is compared to 49 per cent the previous week, and a five-year average sitting at 90 per cent. Soybeans are at 29 per cent, with the five year average being 66 per cent.

Latest #Crop progress for #noplant19:
#Corn 58% planted – 90% is 5yr:
IL 35%, IN 22%, IA 76%, OH 22% #Soybeans 29% planted – 66% is 5yr:
IL 14%, IN 11%, IA 32%, OH 11%

— Clinton Griffiths, AgDay Anchor ? ? ? (@ClintonReports) May 28, 2019

Speculation is rising in terms of how far the U.S. crop has dropped from the trendline yield of 176 bushels per acre, due to the later than desired planting dates.

Joe Vaclavik of Standard Grain stated on Rural Radio 147’s Commodity Wrap that though it depends who you talk to, he thinks “it will be a stretch to hit 176 bushels per acre, but we just don’t really know how it will play out. Right now all the focus is on planting, and how many acres do we lose to Prevent Plant.”

Shaun Haney, host of RealAg Radio, replied that when he talks to analysts, “there is a belief that with the number of acres to be mudded in at the beginning of June, the yield has to be lower than trendline.”

With some states facing a planting deadline of May 31st, Vaclavik is questioning whether or not U.S. farmers should continue to plant corn into early June.

The discussion will slowly transition from acres to yields during the month of June, but for now it is still on acres. #corn #soybeans #oatt

— Arlan Suderman (@ArlanFF101) May 28, 2019

On May 28, 2019, the corn market finished up across all months, which may be just the beginning according to some analysts if the wet weather continues.