The USDA showed no fear in taking a stand on the projected corn yield in today’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Whether due to the late planting dates, unfit soil or pollination timing, the USDA adjusted corn yield dramatically to the downside, while leaving soybeans untouched.
The USDA dropped the projected corn yield from 176 to 166 bushels per acre, with trade estimates reported around 172.4 bushels per acre.
Ted Seifried of Zaner Ag Hedge described the WASDE report as a rip-the-bandaid-off-the-corn-balance-sheet report.
USDA has pegged the US corn yield at 166 bushels per acre. At this point would you take the over or under on that yield?
— RealAgriculture (@realagriculture) June 11, 2019
The USDA stated, “With supplies falling more than use, ending stocks are projected to decline 810 million bushels to 1.7 billion, which if realized would be the lowest since 2013/14. The season-average farm price is raised 50 cents to $3.80 per bushel.”
“The USDA cut both yield and acreage, and they were really rather aggressive on the yield,” says Seifried, who believes acreage could be revised later on based on yesterday’s planting progress of 83 per cent.
In terms of soybeans, the USDA left the projected yield unchanged, and lowered exports of old crop by 75 million bushels. According to many analysts, soybeans could follow corn yield estimates by being lowered later in the summer. Seifried determined that the market may be under-reacting to what could be ahead for the soybean crop this summer.
December corn finished up 12-4 to 447 and November soybeans finished up 1-2 to 887 on Tuesday.
Listen to the entire discussion that Shaun Haney had with Ted Seifried of Zaner Ag Hedge below.