Russia and Ukraine should hit average grain yields in 2019

With the wheat harvest half complete in Russia and wrapped up in Ukraine, analysts are looking at volumes available for export out of the highly competitive Black Sea region.

Mike Lee is twenty year veteran of assessing crops in the region, and updates the globe through the Black Sea Crop Tour.

According to Lee, both Russia and Ukraine achieved “normal” yields and output in comparison to the past four years.

Lee expects Ukraine to produce about 28 million metric tonnes (mmt) of wheat, which is slightly higher than the four-year range of 25 to 27 mmt.

Russia’s wheat harvest is only half completed but expectations are that Russia will produce 73 to 74 mmt, in line with past years’ trend lines except for 2017 where Russia produced 85 mmt.

Comparatively speaking, Canada and Australia are closer to 30 mmt in annual production, while China leads the world with 134 mmt.

As mentioned, the Black Sea region is increasingly competitive in the export market as North American wheat acres decline.

Listen to Mike Lee and Shaun Haney discuss yields in the Black Sea region. 

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