The fury and confusion hasn’t quite settled, following the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released this week.
“(It) doesn’t make any sense, and I think probably 98 per cent of the people, and market analysts, farmers, grain buyers, etc. all thought the exact same thing — probably actually 99.8 per cent,” says FarmLead’s Brennan Turner, in the following interview, filmed at AgSmart in Olds, Alta.
“It was completely the opposite direction of what the entire market was expecting and acres numbers basically suggested were 101.2 million in acres of corn planted this year or intended to be planted, combined with the 10.5 million acres of prevent plant, you have 90 plus million acres of corn seeded, and then the fact remains that basically two-thirds of that corn was planted after May 15th which is the optimal kind of seeding day in terms of yield potential.” (Story continues below player)Brennan Turner of Farmlead talks to RealAgriculture’s Jessika Guse at AgSmart in Olds, Alta, August 13, 2019.
With corn yield projected to be only seven to six bushels lower than than last year’s record year, Turner says it doesn’t add up.
Soybean acres are also pegged a little higher than what was expected, but the Pro Farmer crop tour in the U.S., will give a much better representation of what farmers are dealing with, he says.
On top of state department data that’s not making sense to some if not most, there’s one other factor that’s taking a toll on the markets — politics.
Even though it’s more than a year away, Turner believes there won’t be a trade deal signed before the U.S. election, causing even more of a headache.
“The reality is that, you continue to see question marks around trade aid payments to farmers, to farmers starting to question the length of how long this is taking, (as they were) told it’s going to be done, (to farmers not wanting) trade aid, (and wanting) actual trade to happen.”