A hog outlook and look back: What happens next with this pork market?

If April’s run-up in pork prices was any indication, continuous volatility in the global hog market could run up retail prices here in Canada in the coming months.

Kevin Grier, of Kevin Grier Market Analysis and Consulting, says that African swine fever (ASF), the tenuous U.S./China trade truce, and soybean and hog export swings are all playing out in the hog market now, and will likely continue to have a large impact for the next year or more.

There are rumblings and rumours of pork shortages for Canada, but Grier says that’s unlikely to happen, even as Chinese-owned Smithfield Foods in the U.S., has made the commitment not to short the domestic customer. That said, higher prices pull supply and there may be some other countries that end up short on pork.

As we saw in April, some Canadian customers (mainly processors) were shorted on supply — and a few grocers did end up short too. That translated to higher retail prices for consumers, according to Grier.

While China, continues to grapple with the devastating impacts of ASF domestically, the country has seen an 80 per cent retail price increase year-over-year — which Grier doesn’t think we’ll see here at home. That’s partially due to the major increase in U.S. hog production and slaughter capacity since 2016. The U.S. hog producer definitely wants and needs to see exports increase, regardless of where the pork ends up, and that seems to be the plan, should this latest trade truce actually come to fruition.

Back in Canada, 2019 has been very volatile, of course, but with some good gains and profitability earlier in the year, Grier thinks, on-average, 2019 will end up as a decent year for hog producers. Marketing hogs right now does sting, at a loss of about $25-$30/animal, but at least some of it is due to a seasonal low.

Listen below for the full market discussion with Kevin Grier, below:

Leave a Reply

 

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Privacy Preference Center

Necessary

Necessary cookies help make a website usable by enabling basic functions like page navigation and access to secure areas of the website. The website cannot function properly without these cookies.

gdpr, __cfduid, PHPSESSID, wordpress_test_cookie, woocommerce_items_in_cart, woocommerce_cart_hash, wp_woocommerce_session, wordpress_logged_in, wordpress_sec, wp-settings, wp-settings-time, __cf_mob_redir, wordpress_cache, realag
__cfduid

Marketing

Measuring interactions with the ads on the domain.

__gads,fsk_ut_2317
scmtid,v,a,JSESSIONID
IDE

Statistics

These are used to track user interaction and detect potential problems. These help us improve our services by providing analytical data on how users use this site.

_ga,_gid,_gat,_cb,_chartbeat2,_chartbeat4
_ga,_gat
_ga,_gid
metrics_token

Preferences

Preference cookies enable the website to remember information that changes the way the website behaves or looks, like your preferred language or the region that you are in.

chartdefaults, comment_author, comment_author_email, comment_author_url
JSESSIONID, _os_session,anonymous_votes,csrf-param,csrf-token,user,user-id,user-platform,intercom-session,intercom-lou,intercom-session
personalization_id, tfw_exp