Modest production increases expected for 2020-21 field crops: AAFC

Agriculture and Agri-food Canada (AAFC) released its Outlook for Principal Field Crops report this week, and is predicting a slight increase in both area seeded and overall yield of field crops for the 2020-21 cropping year, compared to 2019-20.

To note: for most crops in Canada, the crop year starts on August 1 and ends on July 31, although for corn and soybeans, the crop year runs September 1 to August 31.

Area Seeded: AAFC is expecting to see a slight increase in area seeded, as wheat and coarse grain acreage is expected to rise slightly, while oilseeds, pulses and special crops are predicted to lose some ground.

Average Yields: Production of grains, oilseeds, pulses and specialty crops is expected to increase by 2 per cent overall.

“In general, abundant supplies of grain at the world level are expected to pressure world grain prices but grain prices in Canada will continue to be supported by the low value of the Canadian dollar,” AAFC says.

Wheat

This year’s wheat area is expected to be nearly the same as last year, as the 17 per cent increase in winter wheat acreage is expected to be offset by a one per cent decrease in spring wheat area. Production for wheat is projected to rise by roughly 2 per cent, to 28 million tonnes.

According to AAFC, supply is forecast to increase by four per cent because of higher carry-in stocks, while exports are expected to rise by five per cent due to lower world production.

Corn

For corn, the seeded area is estimated to fall two per cent compared to last year. However, production is forecasted to increase by three per cent due to higher yields, with imports expected to decrease accordingly. Supply is projected to be slightly lower than last year as lower carry-in stocks and imports more than offset the increase in production.

Canola

AAFC estimates 8.3 million hectares (20.5 million acres) of canola will be seeded in the upcoming season, down two per cent as farmers choose to seed more wheat and coarse grains. Production is projected to drop slightly to 18.5 million tonnes versus the 18.6 million tonnes grown last year. Total supply is also expected to fall to 22.1 million tonnes on the combination of lower carry-in stocks and lower output.

Soybeans

Planted soybeans will change slightly, to 2.25 million hectares (5.6 million acres) for the upcoming year, due to low prices and concerns around growing conditions. Assuming 5-year average yields, AAFC is projecting production to hit 6.6 million tonnes, versus just 6.0 million tonnes last year, and  7.4 million tonnes in 2018-19.


Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC

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