Support, resistance, and burdensome grain supplies — a LIVE! Q&A with Brian Voth

Episodes:

It’s not traditionally a time of year where we see big boosts to several crop price complexes, but what about 2020 has been normal?

In this grain market Q&A LIVE!, Brian Voth, of IntelliFarm, sits down with sports-starved host Shaun Haney to talk corn, canola, soybeans, ethanol, baseball, spring wheat and more!

Don’t miss RealAg LIVE! each Tuesday to Thursday at 3 pm Eastern across social media!

SUMMARY

  • How come the more mad China gets at the U.S., the more commodities China buys?
  • Well, the best guess is that flooding is having an impact on stocks
  • And perhaps there is some diplomacy happening, even posturing, maybe
  • When China needs something, they buy what they need where they can get it — regardless of “good” or “bad” relationship
  • Trying to peg supplies is always a guessing game, but canola doesn’t come from many places, other than Canada
  • Corn! U.S. is still looking at an average/above average yield potential, so supply will be high even with the acreage pull back
  • Market reaction has been so flat to any news, and lacking demand to off-set the big supplies
  • Big lack of demand on the energy/fuel side
  • 2006, pre-ethanol era was the last time we had these stocks-to-use numbers, $3.30 was long-term resistance. Dropping below $3 should drive demand…should
  • Canola is trying to creep up to that $500 mark, not that that would be seasonally expected right now
  • Acres are down a little, which will help the situation
  • Demand is actually stronger than many might think, even with China out of the market (vs where they have been). Crush demand is solid, and it bodes well for the crop for the next year
  • Beans! They’re also part of the veg oil complex, of course, but more neutral. The supplies could be a real heavy drag on prices, especially with South America wading in to the market
  • We’re sitting at the high end of the two-year range and that’s not likely to move higher. November futures hanging out around $9/bu
  • Sky high prices make everyone a really great marketer
  • It’s a family show, so we can’t talk spring wheat
  • So you’re saying wheat has a chance?
  • Global market for wheat is lower overall quality than what Canada sells, and everyone grows it. Russia is growing a lot, too. There are five good days of the year to sell wheat.
  • Lentil conditions are deteriorating, which will have a tight balance sheet. Yellow peas have support, but greens, not so much
  • What about protein premiums for wheat? More so, there will be huge discounts for low protein
  • Several minutes of SPORTS TALK happens next, ha
  • What about durum and flax? Of course someone from Saskatchewan asks this. Given what flax bids have been lately, the bins are pretty empty.

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