China is all business, boring spring wheat, and being 100 per cent sold — LIVE! with Brian Voth


We’re in the thick of the fall season, and grain markets are acting a little counter-seasonal. On today’s RealAg LIVE!, Brian Voth, president and founder of IntelliFARM Inc., walks us through what’s going on with soybean, canola, wheat, and corn markets.

Don’t miss RealAg LIVE! now Monday through Friday at 1 pm Mountain/3 pm Eastern on Facebook, Twitch, Twitter, and Youtube!


  • Shaun is already missing the busy winter travel season
  • This is Brian’s third time on the LIVE!
  • Soybeans showing some weakness, wheat is up slightly (spring wheat was down a little)
  • “Counter season” rally for soybeans, what’s up? Well, there wasn’t a spring rally, which would have been typical
  • The U.S. is banking on record Chinese purchases this fall to knock down the carryout numbers
  • Did funds just decide to be long beans and give ‘er? Maybe.
  • Voth’s concern: have we seen the high for the crop year. The idea of short crop, long-tail — but we’re not short crop, so….
  • We’re working at the perception of a short crop, and so a run-up and perhaps maybe a slow drift back down
  • Voth’s customers are 100 per cent sold on beans. Boom.
  • If prices are good or better than budgeted, what are you waiting for?
  • There will be some level of support at $9.80, but could drift down to resistance in the low 9s
  • Shifting gears to ‘nola: About $510-$515. Fundamentals support these prices, but a little bizarre in September. Would have expected in May, possibly.
  • Tied to soybeans,  of course
  • Canola has a solid balance sheet behind it, but could these also be the highs of the crop year?
  • The basis could be interesting in spring
  • If China is rebuilding their hog herd, they’ll have a home for canola meal
  • At average, for production — re: canola numbers for Western Canada
  • China coming back into the market would likely bump prices, but likely temporarily
  • SHOW ME THE NUMBERS, he says (but didn’t yell it. Editorial license)
  • A chunk of Canadian canola IS going to China, just on different channels.
  • If they need the product, they’ll buy it
  • Spring wheat. So, how about those Jets?
  • Some protein spreads in Alberta (10.5 to 14.5), and solid protein numbers
  • Then Brian talks really quickly about things that sound really complicated unless you’re a market person. Bottom line: a tiny uptrend in spring wheat
  • OK, let’s talk corn — we need a resumption in energy demand (and ethanol, specifically) to see any real improvement in the outlooks
  • U.S dollar has dropped, but the Brazilian real still has a currency advantage
  • Bottom line: China is quite good at figuring out what they need and at what price they are willing to pay, and regardless of relationships they will buy what they want/need. It’s all business.

Leave a Reply


This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Privacy Preference Center


Necessary cookies help make a website usable by enabling basic functions like page navigation and access to secure areas of the website. The website cannot function properly without these cookies.

gdpr, __cfduid, PHPSESSID, wordpress_test_cookie, woocommerce_items_in_cart, woocommerce_cart_hash, wp_woocommerce_session, wordpress_logged_in, wordpress_sec, wp-settings, wp-settings-time, __cf_mob_redir, wordpress_cache, realag


Measuring interactions with the ads on the domain.



These are used to track user interaction and detect potential problems. These help us improve our services by providing analytical data on how users use this site.



Preference cookies enable the website to remember information that changes the way the website behaves or looks, like your preferred language or the region that you are in.

chartdefaults, comment_author, comment_author_email, comment_author_url
JSESSIONID, _os_session,anonymous_votes,csrf-param,csrf-token,user,user-id,user-platform,intercom-session,intercom-lou,intercom-session
personalization_id, tfw_exp


Register for a RealAgriculture account to manage your Shortcut menu instead of the default.