Diving in to the corn supply/demand question and big opportunities in beans

The corn market is surprisingly strong due to various factors in the markets these days. Some yield reductions out of the U.S., and some production issues in China may be part of the equation, but there seems to be a little more optimism in the market than is maybe warranted.

Brennan Turner, CEO of FarmLead and Combyne Marketplace recently joined Shaun Haney to chat about the state of the corn and soybean market as we head into the thick of the U.S. and Canadian crop harvests.

Estimates of corn imports to China are around 7 million metric tonnes, but some analysts think it could be as high as 25 million metric tonnes, which is where some bullishness is coming from, Turner says. Brazil would be the first option for them to import from, Ukraine would be the next, with its more average-looking crop. Frost events, the derecho storm, and hot weather in August in the U.S. have all factored into yield reduction estimates. So there’s a bullish sentiment to the corn market, and if the yields don’t come through and the markets drop, it’s a lost opportunity.

“Largely, this is a story about demand and what we’ve been seeing is about demand, and we’re starting to slowly understand what the supply is really looking like,” says Turner.

Catch the full conversation for Turner’s views on Canadian corn exports and the Clean Fuel Standard’s potential effect on corn prices, story continues below player.

Soybeans have been positive in the markets lately and Turner is happy with the values increase to the levels they’re at on the futures board — he continues to be bullish in the long-term for all oilseeds, since there’s a lot of positive demand fundamentals in the market. Sales into the double digits in places that Canadian soybeans haven’t been able to in a while mirrors what’s happening with canola. It may be time to make some sales versus waiting for the coming months, says Turner.

“The only asterisk I would put out there is that there is a 75 per cent chance of a La Niña happening this winter and that has a tendency to weigh on the production potential of those South American crops,” says Turner.

He advises to diversify, manage risks, and make some soybean sales. Global demand for soybeans continues to rise, and unlike corn which has so many more players in the market, there are more robust fundamentals for soybeans as compared to corn.

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