Dry, dry weather, bullish soybeans, and will we get a Christmas surprise? – a LIVE! with Ted Seifried


Much like 2020, the markets have been surprising. Ted Seifried of Zaner Ag Hedge joins us for this RealAg LIVE! Q&A to discuss all things corn, wheat, and of course, soybean meal.

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  • Is there a lack of liquidity? How close do we judge the markets getting closer to the end of the year?
  • It’s going to get quieter and quieter getting into the holiday season. However, holidays in countries like China don’t line up with ours, so it begs the question — will we see any surprises around Christmas?
  • Forget about mad cow, mad beans.
  • Why is the spread between Chicago and Minneapolis wheat so large? There’s always a premium on Minneapolis wheat. The market is really looking at high protein wheat.
  • What’s going on with Russia and wheat exports? We got excited from the very top, because Putin said he wants to address the food inflation issues. How do they address that? Limit their exports.
  • Do the export prices of soft/hard wheat also reflect the Minneapolis/Chicago inverse? For the most part, yes. There’s of course always basis involved, but yes.
  • Weather. Dryness in Russia. Dryness in Western Canada. Dryness in the U.S. wheat belt. Dryness in Australia. Is that a bullish factor? Wheat prices are pretty darn solid, and this is a reflection of that.
  • Soybeans! We can talk about how we got here…but the real question is, where do we go from here, and how do farmers approach this as the market goes higher?
  • Looking at yesterday and today, there’s some telling there. Soybean meal is right back up to those record highs. Seifried thinks they will continue to go even higher. This could drive us to import from South America, as we reach very low levels of soybeans, especially in the U.S.
  • Argentina strike is what is driving up the soybean meal prices. As well, we’ve got strong feed demand in North America as a whole.
  • 2021 US acres: bean/corn spread right now supports more beans, do you have a shot at the dart board for acreage estimates?
  • With the planting issues we’ve had the last couple of years, Seifried thinks there’s going to be a world where we see that 5 million acres more of soybeans, and it not really causing any issues. Demand drivable markets can stay around for years, and that’s what we may expect with soybeans.
  • Corn acres he has a hard time getting bullish on. There are some challenges coming our way, due to ethanol issues. Ethanol is a huge concern as our travel rates continue to drop. In order to hit the USDA’s target, we’re going to have to see a sense of normalcy heading into the spring and summer.
  • Will China implement an E10/E15? Who really knows. Does China ever do what we think they’ll do?
  • Global demand for corn is increasing, especially on the feed side.
  •  Haney and Seifried sidetrack into college football…

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