After enjoying a counter-seasonal rally in the grain markets, prices have started to drift lower. Farmers with crop left to price might be wondering — now what?
To answer that question, we go to Jon Driedger of Leftfield Commodity Research.
While there’s no ruling out a move to the upside, Driedger has a hint of caution: “A heck of a lot of good news is already priced into this market,” he says.
What could propel markets higher? Maybe poor South American weather would do it, but if that crop doesn’t get shrunk down, well, markets aren’t going to firm up or edge higher, he says.
The “now what?” is a smart question to ask, as farmers who aren’t already well-sold should hold on to crop with eyes wide open. Continued focus on your plan is critical and not getting caught up in the emotion of the momentum of the market. There is a natural tendency to chase the top but that is a delicate difficult quest.
There are always surprises, Driedger says, with plenty of things to watch, and “what if?” scenarios with factors like government debt and liquidity, tight balance sheets and more, but there are some warning lights. Farmers need to be fully aware of a realistic outlook for the major crop commodities going forward, for sure.
Hear more from Driedger in this conversation with Shaun Haney from RealAg Radio: