Buying acres, low-pro wheat, and priced-in bulls — a LIVE! with Brennan Turner

Profitable grain prices can make sticking to a planned crop rotation a little tougher if there’s a clear winner in the bunch, but many farmers are enjoying decent prices across the board for most crops right now.

How long these strong prices last is the big unknown, and to unpack where we’re at and where prices may be headed is Combyne’s Brennan Turner.

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SUMMARY

• Let’s kick off the first market chat of the year with…currency? Ugh.
• We’re looking at healthy demand, so despite a strong Canadian dollar, exporters still want more, more, more
• Canada is a reliable supplier — we’ve proven it in the last year
• High 70s right now. What if we move into 90 cents or, dare we say it, par?
• Riding this grain wave — at what point does cheap money and easy freight and high prices start to move the prices lower?
• We’re going to see strong demand for quite some time yet
• Farmers should be pretty happy. Oilseed prices are buying a lot of acres (hi, canola!)
• New crop prices aren’t as great, but locking in some profit is never a bad idea
• As of January, should farmers be locking in some prices? If so, how much? That’s a farm specific number, but protect against the down side risk
• Moving towards 60 per cent new crop sold before crop goes in isn’t out of the realm of possibility, because it’s hard to ignore some profit opportunities
• Lock in some profit, but also ensure some cash flow
• Barley: perhaps more downside risk than others
• Low-protein wheat heading in to feed and ethanol market, which is predicated on the corn market
• It’s hard to ignore $7/bu cash price wheat, y’all
• Does that buy spring wheat acres for these feed/GP wheats?
• New crop winter wheat and Minnie wheat are actually higher  (being paid to hold on to your wheat)
• Canola carry out estimate for 2021 right now? AAFC has it as 1.2 MMT
• Will the markets move to attract more spring wheat acres?
• Are AAFC’s numbers too slow in being published? Well, it’s complicated. And, heck, WASDE comes out 4 weeks after the data is compiled
• Next week’s WASDE — will it be bullish?
• Watch final harvest numbers, for sure
• Weather woes in the south should be factored in, but has it already been priced in
• Mid-May early June is more likely to push bulls further, not necessarily what’s in next week’s report
• And now, pulses. That comes down, largely, to India.
• Many growers have been waiting for numbers to come up, and some did
• Could see move out of some pulse types and into canola or even flax
• MUSTARD. It’s the best of the condiments. Fight me.

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