Green on the screen across commodities post-WASDE — a LIVE! with Jon Driedger

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Struggling with what to make of the markets lately? Moving the market, in this moment, is the latest WASDE report; and to help break it down for us is Jon Driedger of Leftfield Commodity Research, joining host Shaun Haney for today’s RealAg LIVE!

Tune in for a new LIVE! Q&A every weekday at 3 pm Eastern!

SUMMARY

    • Near month in corn and soybeans went nuts today!
    • Chicago wheat is up too
    • GREEN ON THE SCREEN
    • What’s going on?
    • Tight ending stocks, y’all
    • 172 on the corn yield for USDA, 2020 in the face of strong demand. The combination is just feeding this bull
    • 10 bushels an acre “lost” on U.S. corn production. How does that even happen?! It’s quite something
    • Why is the market up so dramatically when ending stocks aren’t that different? Could be that the smaller demand numbers are being made to fit
    • Do big export commitments overseas (China) get moved forward, cancelled? It does happen
    • How in the heck are we even suggesting corn prices with a six in the front. What the heck, versus last year.
    • Demand rationing happens at higher prices, we know that, but that rationing takes time
    • And scrambling for what’s left of ending stocks drives things up quickly
    • Exciting could be good exciting or not good exciting
    • Soybeans, now. Slightly less dramatic numbers, more in line, however still a tight balance sheet
    • South American production numbers down a little
    • China buys when they need to: how much can be credited to Trump’s trade policy? Similar spikes in other countries and other commodities — so probably a limited impact
    • Futures popped just ahead of the WASDE — what happened there? Likely just some momentum heading in
    • What about wheat? Carryout has been trending downwards for a few years, but it’s got some support and tailwind from other crops
    • Buying appetites have been variable, and basis has been noisy. Be patient, shop around.
    • Unsold inventory on ’20? Cha-ching!
    • Volatility often means steep decline…but there’s still some upside yet. But for how long?
    • Reward rallies with smaller increments, and leave some bullets in the chamber
    • New crop is edging upward, too. Don’t get too fixated on what was sold early, especially at a profit
    • Canola inventory is tight. Ration demand out of export markets when global supply is low is a challenge. Bottom line: some upside potential.
    • Bludgeon demand to keep carryout to a reasonable minimum
    • Make sure you’re keeping track of the signals of when this bull begins to slow
    • Hard red wheat acres might pull back a little
    • Strong crop prices all around could mean rotations stay strong. Yay!
    • Funds: where are they at?

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