Morocco, Mickey Mouse, and the fertilizer markets — LIVE! with Josh Linville

Episodes:

Covering all the countries and the fertilizers they produce — from Moroccan, Russian, U.S., Canadian, even Belrusian — Josh Linville, of StoneX, extensively covers the fertilizer markets in this RealAg LIVE!

Don’t forget to tune into RealAg LIVE! every weekday at 3pm E, 1 pm M on Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, and Twitch!

SUMMARY

  • Linville graduated from college on a Sunday and started working in the fertilizer industry on a Monday, he has extensive experience
  • Let’s get down to the fundamentals, same as any other commodity market, just have to “strip away the noise”
  • Linville predicts that this week will be a real crossroads for the fertilizer market
  • Demand is different for each product
  • Phosphate tariffs. The anti-dumping case is ongoing. Morocco and Mosaic are still fighting it out. Russia’s involved too. Politics are at play.
  • Urea market. China’s the biggest producer of urea in the world and they haven’t been exporting. They’re heating homes, not making fertilizer. India put together a purchase tender and essentially wiped out the world supply. A million and a half tonnes. The U.S. and Brazil are also contenders.
  • Buy urea now or wait until in-season?
  • Just-in-time inventory is always a concern. Any logistical challenges this year that Linville’s concerned about? Lack of snow-pack, scary for a river standpoint. Low water levels mean daytime only transit or lower quantities on ships. That means a limited supply for western Canada.
  • Will COVID affect supply of anhydrous for western Canada? Not in Linville’s opinion. The logistics for anhydrous are really spread out.
  • Relationship between urea and UAN and why it’s so interesting right now? Upgraded facilities meant built in ability to produce more urea or more UAN depending on market. Urea, UAN, anhydrous, break them all down to price and UAN usually wins.
  • Expect the new Biden administration to have any significant impact on the N or P markets? Both on U.S. supply side and demand side?
  • As corn prices go up, since Corn is King, and it affects the commodity complex, how will it affect fertilizers? For N, it’ll depend on what mother nature allows. For P and K, demand was non-existent August of last year, and by the end of the year couldn’t keep up (in the U.S. anyways).
  • Potash went through a spiral downwards last year. Bad application seasons, excess inventory. Finally chewed through the extra.
  • “There’s no downtime in fertilizer.” The biggest opportunities happen when people aren’t paying attention.
  • Urea is in the $330s, about $335. The highest in 2009, $800/tonne.
  • The relationship between commodity prices and fertilizer… “take the emotion out of it and look at the relationship between inputs and commodities”
  • Belarus. We’re covering all the countries y’all. Anti-Lukashenko protests affect on potash?
  • Last words: make sure you’re having the conversation(s) with your supplier

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