RealAg LIVE! with Jon Driedger on pre-seed grain markets

Episodes:

This last week of March will see some new reports come in, as farmers begin to finalize seeding details both in Canada and the U.S.

For today’s RealAg LIVE!, host Kara Oosterhuis is joined by Jon Driedger of LeftField Commodity Research, to talk “wildcard” crops, canola acres, rotation decisions, the forecast, and intended corn and soybean acres. Plus, he talks market demand from China through 2021, too.

RealAg LIVE! streams every weekday at 3 pm E on Youtube, Facebook, and Twitter!

SUMMARY

  • Corn markets are tight. Soybean stocks are tight.
  • Increases in both corn and soybean acres; certainly the market is creating more incentive for farmers to plant more acres
  • Easy to overlook March 1 stocks for these crops; long-term acreage numbers are most important
  • Lots of important information “dumped” at the same time
  • Carryout numbers?
  • Livestock feeding?
  • We all love talking weather! When do we worry about drought conditions?
  • U.S. projected planting numbers coming out soon, how will those affect Canadian acres?
  • Canola has its own story unfolding; cash spread is large, shouldn’t the prices converge at some point?
  • For canola futures specifically in 2021, Driedger thinks there will be more volatility, less liquidity, supplies are tight, erratic is a good way to put it. WILDCARD
  • Might be harder to forecast how July will come off the board
  • Vegetable oil market! Not just soybean and canola, but also palm and sunflower
  • Wheat? Not really an exciting story lately. Flat market.
  • In our seeding season, dryness concerns, how will that translate?
  • Balance sheets are already looking a little tight, it’ll be even harder when some bushels are shaved off
  • Last minute changes to the rotation?
  • More specific: canaryseed? Maybe a bit of a bump, not huge
  • Yellow pea meal prices have been strong; could depend on how tight the soy and meal complex is
  • Green peas have been lagging, might lose some acres, but could also tighten up the market
  • Green lentils might not have as many acres either
  • Key pulse and special crop growing areas
  • Why will the weather be so important this year?
  • Durum crop in other parts of the world (North Africa)?
  • Which crop will be rambunctious? If everyone calls a commodity a dark horse, is it really still a dark horse?
  • FLAX! Can’t forget about it! Cautious about the flax outlook; might be a bit more vulnerable
  • Still bullish on exports to China from North America through 2021?
  • Is the biggest variable for the intensity of China’s buying depending on the ASF situation and how it will develop in 2021?

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