RealAg LIVE! with Neil Townsend on the interesting times in grain markets


If there was one piece of information you would have wanted in January of 2020, it might have been about COVID-19 transmission. But as of January 2021, the nugget of info that may mean the most for markets this year is if Chinese buying keeps pace or exceeds last year.

There’s more at play in these grain markets than just China however; and to tackle upside potential, dry weather, and biofuel demand, host Shaun Haney is joined by Neil Townsend of FarmLink Marking Solutions. Listen on for a full analysis of corn and wheat, plus the number one thing you should NOT do this marketing season.

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  • What did we miss in this market story?
  • The depth and degree of demand — of all demand, not just China’s
  • Trend up from several markets, three specifically, that the first six months of the crop year have been amazing
  • Growing demand, and remarkable demand going forward
  • Biggest of the big pictures: last year, January, it would all have been COVID. THIS January, you would’ve wanted to know how demand trends are going to be in the next six to 12 months?
  • Everyone got their magic numbers in
  • Unpriced canola out there? Maybe 10 per cent
  • Carryout of 800,000 tonnes on a marketing year
  • What about the new crop/old crop spreads?
  • Think about when supply recharges of each crop type
  • 2021/22 marketing year, is likely shaping up really, really positive (vaccines, visits!, American stimulus)
  • USDA or AAFC or EU may underestimate bio-matter moving into gas tanks
  • EU will have winter damage, specifically in their winter rapeseed
  • We’re going to need every kernel of corn in the U.S. and it’s d-r-y
  • Same goes for huge areas of Western Canada
  • Canola fundamentals are supportive, but same for corn (21/22)
  • New/old crop canola numbers…don’t necessarily make sense
  • Be patient. Stay light on new crop sales, likely. There’s upside. And it’s dry.
  • If you have storage, price other crops
  • Sell oats, barley? Maybe. But bulkier, earlier
  • Then others and others, then canola and soybeans 🙂
  • There’s talk of $20 beans. Anyone else think that’s madness?
  • No one likes to leave money on the table, but positive return is positive return
  • 30-40 per cent priced before harvest starts is still a solid risk management plan
  • 177 days until September 1st (when supply re-charge starts) in Canada
  • The new contract starts where the old goes off the board
  • What about corn? Bullish!
  • There could be amazing acres in less traditional areas
  • It’s shaping up to be a very interesting year
  • What about wheat? Recharge of supply happens a little sooner
  • Keeping the people safe? Bread and circuses.
  • Rotation is still important, please

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