It’s a bird, it’s a plane… it’s a RealAg LIVE! on markets, that starts with talk of planes!
In this episode of RealAg LIVE! host Kara Oosterhuis is joined by the founder of IntelliFarm, Brian Voth, to talk canola, basis, crush capacity, soybean acres, dry conditions, and flax.
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- Brian is one step closer to being a pilot (Lyndsey finds that terrifying)
- Luka has something to do with basketball
- Canola market moves — let’s look at charts!
- The price was definitely range bound for a long time
- Demand has been strong, exports have been better than expected and supply is t-i-g-h-t
- China didn’t stop buying, even though they threatened to
- Little room for error between now and new crop
- 1.5 to 2 million acre bump could happen, and that will still mean a tight balance sheet
- Supply side: predicted acres and average production doesn’t make things bearish
- Basis levels have been 30, 40, 50 over, deliveries off November number…should you take that? It depends
- The next three monthly transitions will be very interesting
- There is a risk of pricing too much too early, especially with dry conditions
- It’s less about penciling in profit and more about managing production risk now
- The very good news of expanding crush expansion — it’s added tonnage of crush capacity, in perhaps a three year span
- If export demand continues, we may need yields to take a jump to meet it
- Regardless of what happens politically, China will buy what it needs when it wants to
- Hog herd is expanding and they need feed
- Soybeans! If the U.S. demand stays consistent, even the bump in soybean acres will just keep the pipeline full — not build stocks
- Volatility will be the name of the game for this growing season
- Bull markets need constant bullish news to keep moving up up up
- Some snowfall did show up in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, but it’s not much in the grand scheme of things
- It’s abnormally dry for so many areas of the Prairies
- Going to need timely rain
- FLAX! Acres have been steady the last five to six years
- Demand has stayed steady and stored crop has been chipped down
- $23/bu will buy some acres
- Wheat is ho hum on the best of days
- Durum is a different beast, though (We heart you, pasta)
- Let’s talk about U.S. reports, too, eh?
- Disruption in shipping — Suez Canal and the Port of Montreal, not the same 🙂 But any disruption isn’t a good thing