RealAg LIVE! with Neil Townsend on seeding acreage intentions for 2021

Episodes:

Canola, wheat, pulse crops, barley, and more acreage numbers were released in Statistics Canada’s report today. The numbers are what they are, and hopefully Statistics Canada was able to complete surveys that gave fairly accurate ones.

To break it down for us, Neil Townsend, senior market analyst at FarmLink Marketing Solutions, joins Shaun Haney for today’s RealAg LIVE!

RealAg LIVE! streams every weekday at 3 pm E on YouTube, Facebook, and Twitter!

SUMMARY

  • Neil wonders about the moisture profile in Southern Alberta. It’s dry.
  • Let’s start with canola, because, 21.5 million acres (up 3.6% over 2020), but well below expectations
  • You can argue about methodology, but the number is what it is
  • It’s an art and a science (including talking to farmers)
  • Farmers may be more or less willing to share information
  • 21.5 is still in the realm of possibility
  • New crop canola didn’t tell the same story as old crop, mind
  • There were good prices off the combine, too
  • Dry bias could have moved some acres into barley
  • Other options can pay right now.
  • Feed barley at 8.6 million was a little high, vs FarmLink’s internal number
  • All these new plant announcements….net importer of canola?
  • Caution vs. what happened in the EU
  • Big canola appetite will have to come from new yield, not added acres
  • Imagine the 2.5 million tonnes per year the new Viterra plant will need
  • Renewable diesel demand out of California
  • Spring wheat price signals?
  • Durum is gonna help durum, friends
  • Watch what happens in North Dakota (i.e. rain)
  • Chickpeas are bearish
  • There are some big risks in pea markets (Looking at you China and India)
  • Corn! Feedgrains! Feed prices have crept up.
  • If corn crop is solid, prices will slide, if the U.S. crop is light, look out
  • Port of Montreal strike — any impact on prices?
  • Stuff costing more usually leads to some issues
  • Logistics disruptions are never a good thing
  • So, that happened (not a market moving report)

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