Poll suggests Trudeau would form next government

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A recent poll of Canadians has two clear messages: most do not want an election any time soon, but, if there were an election today, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau would remain in power.

“You can be somewhat dissatisfied with the incumbent, but you have to have an alternative that you feel better about, and right now Erin O’Toole and the Conservative party haven’t done enough to appeal to enough people to really make them competitive,” says David Coletto with Abacus Data, in the conversation below.

The company has published findings of a national survey of 1,981 Canadian adults, polled from April 9 to 14.

If an election were held today, Coletto says their numbers suggest the Liberals would win 37 per cent of the popular vote, the Conservatives 29 per cent, the NDP 19 per cent, the Green Party 6 per cent.

Coletto says that O’Toole is struggling on two fronts: he’s facing significant division in his own party regarding making the party electable, and he’s simply not top of mind with Canadians.

It’s always difficult to gain attention as a party leader not in power, but it’s been significantly more difficult during a pandemic, Coletto says. Canadians simply have far more on their minds right now.

That said, when asked if O’Toole seems to be working in the best interest of the party or the country, Canadians suggested they felt he was more committed to the party. “Trudeau and [NDP leader Jagmeet] Singh are not seen in the same light,” Coletto says.

But, underneath all these numbers is a sour note. Canadians are feeling less positive about the direction things are headed, in general, and most don’t want an election anytime soon, he says.

Read the full Abacus Data report, here.

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