A recent poll of Canadians has two clear messages: most do not want an election any time soon, but, if there were an election today, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau would remain in power.

“You can be somewhat dissatisfied with the incumbent, but you have to have an alternative that you feel better about, and right now Erin O’Toole and the Conservative party haven’t done enough to appeal to enough people to really make them competitive,” says David Coletto with Abacus Data, in the conversation below.

The company has published findings of a national survey of 1,981 Canadian adults, polled from April 9 to 14.

If an election were held today, Coletto says their numbers suggest the Liberals would win 37 per cent of the popular vote, the Conservatives 29 per cent, the NDP 19 per cent, the Green Party 6 per cent.

Coletto says that O’Toole is struggling on two fronts: he’s facing significant division in his own party regarding making the party electable, and he’s simply not top of mind with Canadians.

It’s always difficult to gain attention as a party leader not in power, but it’s been significantly more difficult during a pandemic, Coletto says. Canadians simply have far more on their minds right now.

That said, when asked if O’Toole seems to be working in the best interest of the party or the country, Canadians suggested they felt he was more committed to the party. “Trudeau and [NDP leader Jagmeet] Singh are not seen in the same light,” Coletto says.

But, underneath all these numbers is a sour note. Canadians are feeling less positive about the direction things are headed, in general, and most don’t want an election anytime soon, he says.

Read the full Abacus Data report, here.

3 thoughts on “Poll suggests Trudeau would form next government

    1. the poll was across Canada. Personally I am surprised that COVID has not hurt the PM more in popularity but the conservatives have really struggled to gain traction in the meantime which was an issue under Scheer as well.

  1. I believe most Canadians will not look for an alternative to Trudeau until the federal bill comes in, taxes go up, cost of living increases and the standard of living starts to decline.
    Once the Pandemic ends, the safety net is removed, then attention will then be paid to the actual cost in the immediate future and the long term affects of debt, both personal and nationally. The spending done in the last five years, the huge deficits, will all have to be addressed and the Trudeau Liberals will be in opposition, blaming the government for cuts to services and any attempts to balance the budget.
    The Liberals tend to regain power once the Canadian economy and government deficits are under control. Election promises by Liberals always tend to exceed the Canadian budget.
    Time to cut up the credit cards and run government like most Canadian’s budgets.

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