The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released May 12 by the World Agricultural Outlook Board.

Joining host Shaun Haney to break down the WASDE report in this RealAg LIVE! episode is Ted Seifried of Zaner Ag Hedge. Listen and watch to hear about ending stocks, projected acres, trade, hedging, and more.

SUMMARY

  • Report came out very much as what we were expecting, but not what market was expecting
  • Market was disappointed
  • Tighter new crop
  • USDA cut new crop demand
  • That corn number could be a tighter balance sheet? Look at December corn compared to December beans
  • We don’t need to price ration corn in a massive way
  • Now is the right time to see a bigger break in these markets, lead by new crop corn
  • Drought is definitely a consideration — but we’re still too early to say that
  • We will be on our tippy-toes for the weather market this year
  • Right now the market has done its job
  • Cash market has been tight
  • Prior to last year, we had two to three years where we didn’t think we’d hit USDA numbers, but we did
  • The variability to the downside is a lot less than what is has been to the years past
  • At some point during the season we will at the very least get scared about something, and the market will surge again
  • A pause can be okay for a market
  • Let’s buy that demand back a bit
  • December corn is down, November beans are up
  • Razor thin carryover in beans
  • Between now and September 1, we’re going to get virtual zero carryover for beans
  • For a few months we had forgotten about how tight soybeans are
  • The soybean balance sheet is where we really could see fireworks
  • The November soybean contract is very underrated right now
  • How does that factor into farmers trying to figure out their marketing strategy?
  • There’s a difference between selling too early at $8, and selling too early at $14
  • Cash sales and future sales to manage risk
  • Call options to manage opportunity
  • Higher prices — has ration demand increased?
  • So that’s exactly what the report was about. We didn’t see any old crop ration
  • Bulls make money, bears make money, and pigs get slaughtered
  • Spring wheat growers in Western Canada — how should they look at today’s WASDE?
  • There wasn’t a whole lot of a takeaway on the wheat side
  • There were some people looking for a more bullish wheat report, especially in the spring wheat side
  • This could be a time for a break for wheat in the market
  • When you have high price corn and high price wheat, you start to kill off some of the demand. We haven’t really seen that in old crop yet
  • Brazil — some people are saying in this report they are too optimistic on Brazilian output based on weather conditions
  • Again, depends so much on the weather
  • Lets check these numbers again in a month
  • What should producers be watching in the several months ahead?
  • Hot and heavy rally with December corn, left beans behind. Now beans will be the one to watch.
  • Any sort of weather problems, those beans will keep shooting up
  • Seifried says he’d like to see people 50 per cent sold on new crop beans

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