This month’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) didn’t contain any huge shocks, with soybean stocks ticking up but corn stocks down slightly.
The global wheat outlook for 2021/22 is for larger supplies, higher consumption, increased trade, and higher stocks. Supplies are projected to increase 4.3 million tons to 1,087.9 million, mainly on higher production for the EU, Russia, and Ukraine as world production is projected at a record 794.4 million.
Matthew Pot of Grain Perspectives says that corn was lowered more than he expected for this report. The USDA raised corn used for ethanol by 75 million bushels as well as exports by 75 million bushels, for a combination of 150 million bushels added to demand. This lowered old crop stocks to 1.107 billion bushels, he says.
As noted, this month’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2021/22 include higher beginning and ending stocks. Higher beginning stocks reflect a lower crush forecast for 2020/21. Soybean crush for 2020/21 is reduced 15 million bushels to 2.175 billion based on a lower forecast for soybean meal domestic disappearance and higher soybean meal imports. Soybean oil exports for 2020/21 are reduced 400 million pounds to 1.9 billion as high U.S. prices reduce competitiveness in the world market.
— Farm Policy (@FarmPolicy) June 10, 2021
The market reaction following the report supported corn, but weighed on soybean and soy oil, plus wheat pricing.