Drought in spring wheat area produces bullish USDA wheat estimate


The USDA projected tighter-than-expected wheat supplies for the 2021-22 crop year in its July World Agricultural Supply/Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released on Monday.

Most of the other key figures in the report for the big three crops — corn, soy, and wheat — were in line with expectations, with yield projections left unchanged from June.

The new crop wheat ending stock estimate was likely the biggest surprise, coming in at 665 million bushels, as production was cut by 152 million bushels largely on account of the drought in the spring wheat growing area. The carry-out estimate was well below the average pre-report trade guess of 729 million and the USDA’s June estimate of 728 million.

For corn, old crop ending stocks were pegged at 1.082 billion bushels, while new crop ending stocks were projected at 1.432 billion bushels — both figures well within the range of the trade’s expectations. The average yield was left unchanged at 179.5 bushels per acre, with production rising by 75 million bushels based on the USDA’s updated acreage estimates from June 30th.

Soybean ending stocks for both old crop and new crop were left unchanged, at 135 million bushels and 155 million bushels, respectively. The average soybean yield was also left unchanged until the August report at 50.8 bushels per acre.

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