There’s never a dull moment in the fertilizer market and it’s hard not to wonder what will be in store for producers for the 2022 crop year.

Josh Linville, director of fertilizer at StoneX, recently joined Shaun Haney on RealAg Radio to discuss the fertilizer markets, including what’s happening with tariffs.

During Linville’s last conversation with Haney, they discussed tariffs against Moroccan and Russian phosphate products and since then, those tariffs have been put into place. Now, there are countering lawsuits from Mosaic, suing the U.S. government saying that the duty rates are too low, and on behalf of the Moroccans and Russians, saying the duty rates are too high, says Linville.

“We have to assume that this situation is going to drag on for a while,” says Linville, “the longer it drags out there’s going to be two winners — it’s going to be the producer in the U.S. and it’s going to be the lawyers.”

Of course, this impacts price. As of recently the U.S. market has gone to a premium versus a lot of the world spots, he explains, which might be a mechanism for the U.S. to indicate to the rest of the world that they need more phosphate.

What’s next? For the 2022 crop, it’s all about input price escalation and how to manage margins. Linville is seeing significantly higher fertilizer prices than 12 months ago, and for a lot of the fall/spring application season, farmers didn’t see true replacement prices, retailers weren’t passing that price along. Now that it’s summer, that’s the time for a reset, says Linville, fearing quite a bit of sticker shock.

Will fertilizer prices go down? Listen to the full interview below, for Linville’s explanation:

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