When we think about how farmers market their crop, there are two significant events that have occurred in 2021 that may drive people to think a little different going forward.
One of those is the market run-up last fall, when prices really began to escalate.The second factor is farmers in the western half of North America questioning whether they are going to be short or not on some of the grain they pre-sold to grain companies.
These two situations have some questioning: Should I change my market strategy for 2022?
Jon Driedger of LeftField Commodity Research says even prior to the drought that occurred, the early prices have many thinking they sold too much too soon, and may change what they do in the coming years.
“As we look forward from here, it very well may be that farms may be a little reluctant to commit to too much too early. Part of it is probably a fair risk assessment in the sense of unless we replenish a bunch of moisture in the soil, that dryness risk is going to be there going forward if we don’t get the spring rain we need, or winter moisture that is needed,” Driedger explains.
Because of the markets being a bit of a mind game as well, there are psychological elements to the decision. (Story and audio continues below the poll)
“Each farm and business has got to make decisions for what makes sense for their own individual operation, and that’s going to look vastly different from one farm to the next, to the extent that the actual risk and what these factors mean for risk production going forward, that’s one thing that obviously matters,” he explains.
It can be very easy to get mixed up mentally in emotions and regret when it comes to the 2021 cropping year, so Driedger notes that although easier said than done, it’s important to try to not let emotions decipher your decision making going forward.
“It’s hard. Markets are volatile. There’s a lot of uncertainty, and it’s not easy making decisions in that environment,” he says.
Check out the full conversation between Driedger and RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney, below: