Just a few weeks ago, Statistics Canada pegged the 2021 canola crop at over 14 million tonnes. The latest report out of the department has decreased that estimate further, to 12.8 million tonnes.

“Canola production is expected to fall 34.4 per cent to 12.8 million tonnes in 2021, as drought conditions on the Prairies drove yields to their lowest level in a decade (-39.5per cent to 25.3 bushels per acre), offsetting higher harvested area (+8.1 per cent to 22.2 million acres). If this were to happen, this would be the lowest canola production since 2010,” the StatsCan report published September 14th reads.

Canola production in Saskatchewan is expected to decrease 47.2 per cent to 5.8 million tonnes; Alberta is expected to decrease 17.1 per cent to 4.3 million tonnes; and in Manitoba, yield is expected to fall 21.3 per cent to an average 32.6 bushels per acre.

This latest report is based on StatsCan’s Crop Condition Assessment Program (CCAP) which indicates that overall plant health in Western Canada was lower to much lower than normal, having decreased considerably throughout August. This indicates the likelihood of lower than normal yields, StatsCan says.

Departure from average precipitation (in millimetres) from April 1 to August 31, 2021 by province. (StatsCan, supplied)

As of the end of August, provincial government departments reported harvest well ahead of average. Alberta reported that over one-quarter (26 per cent) of the major crops had been harvested, well over double last year’s harvest season (10 per cent) and the 2016-to-2020 five-year average (11 per cent); Saskatchewan was at 40 per cent harvested, up from 28 per cent last year and the five-year average (22 per cent); and Manitoba reported harvest progress at 35 per cent, up from 13 per cent last year and the five-year average of 28 per cent.


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