Still too early to make solid production estimates, says market analyst


As you look at growing conditions across the Prairies, it’s extremely variable .

Too hot, too dry, too wet, too cool — the conditions range, which makes looking at production numbers a bit tricky.

Chuck Penner, of LeftField Commodities Research says although there are a lot of big question marks, overall, production seems to be in better shape this year than it was at this time last year.

“The way I look at it is last year, there were no soil moisture reserves. And then when we got that extreme heat, it just smoked the crop. I’ve never seen a crop deteriorate that fast,” Penner recalls. “This year, as we move into July, it’s going to get warmer yet, and things like that. But there is some soil moisture, and a lot of areas that will help counter heat even if we get it. And I really don’t want to see a repeat of last year.”

Looking at production estimates at this time of the year can be tricky, as many are still in the middle of spray season. In order to get an idea of what could happen, Penner and the group at LeftField Commodities Research, are looking at possible scenarios of what could happen.

From there, they see what each scenario could do to the crop balance sheets. For the most part, when looking at averages from years past they are disregarding 2021, as the extreme widespread drought brings the averages much lower than they likely actually are.

“For something like peas, the range would be maybe 2.6 to 3.4 million tonnes, and in the middle of that is three, so that’s kind of the range that we might look at. And then how does that affect, or how does that play against possible demand? And all those types of things. But, if anyone is trying to make solid estimates at this point in time, they didn’t learn the lesson from last year.”

Check out the full conversation for a breakdown on pulses, canola, wheat, and the impacts of Russia and Ukraine, below:






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