There’s been a significant shift in how Canadians feel about the governing Liberals and the Official Opposition, the Conservative Party of Canada.
For the first time since 2015, the Conservatives have posted a double-digit lead over the Liberals, according to a survey from Abacus Data, polled just ahead of last week’s cabinet shuffle. Since the end of June, the Conservatives’ overall vote share has risen four points to 38 per cent, the Liberals are down one to 28, and the NDP is down two percentage points to 18 per cent.
David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, says it’s not the first survey to put the Conservatives ahead of the Liberals, but 10 points is big.
“It signals something’s happening in a number of parts of the country…driven by concerns about the cost of living, disappointment and frustration with the Liberal government, just general fatigue with a government that’s been in office for eight years. ”
Canadians do tend to tire of governments after awhile, so fatigue may be a factor, but don’t count out Justin Trudeau and the Liberals just yet, Coletto says.
“Despite people’s frustration, their desire for change, 80 per cent of Canadians in our survey said they want change in government, only 20 per cent thought the Liberals deserve to be re-elected. A lot of those people, though, haven’t given full thought to what the alternative would be…and that won’t happen till the campaign actually begins — whenever it starts,” he says.
As for speculation as to when an election may be, Coletto doesn’t see these polling numbers or the cabinet shuffle really signalling an end to this current government any time soon.
“If you’re the New Democrats, who are in the easiest position to determine whether there’s an election, I don’t see them wanting to go because they’re actually trending downwards as well. And if you’re the Liberals, this would be complete folly to think you could go into an environment like this and have any shot at winning. You never know, politics is incredibly unpredictable, and with a minority Parliament, anything could happen.”
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | RSS | All Podcasts
