Oilseed outlook remains uncertain, along with yields


The outlook for oilseeds like canola and soybeans remains uncertain as harvest gets into full swing across North America, according to Tyler Schau of AgMarket.Net.

For canola — which obviously has a much smaller footprint across North America — Schau notes there has been good production in some areas of Canada and North Dakota, though yields varied significantly even within fields. This makes analysts think upcoming revisions to Canadian production and ending stock numbers could provide surprises.

Overall, Schau expects Canadian canola production to be down about one-third from last year, based on the current numbers from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

“Canola production doesn’t look quite as good, but for the most part, you’ve seen a fairly decent production of canola,” says Schau, in this conversation with RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney. However, he noted yields varied significantly even within fields. “Sometimes they think they’re going to have a monster crop, and it turns out to be a dud, and sometimes it’s the exact opposite.”

As for soybeans, Schau says the national soybean yield forecast is sitting around that 50 bushel an acre range — which is a higher number than originally anticipated for many of these areas.

“For as much talk as there has been in the market, about how poor the yields are going to be, the yield reports have been better than expected. It’s an average to above average crop yield,” he explains, while cautioning that early reports may not tell the whole story.

“Reports are coming out of Illinois right now, which is the area I really felt where the story was in June — how terrible that crop was, it was so dry.”

It’s also important to keep in mind that much of the soybeans factored into current yield reports were planted earlier, and able to avoid some late season heatwaves. Yields from later planted beans are not in yet — which is were Schau says this uncertainty and caution still lies. However, harvest is ramping up across key growing areas, and is expected to increase over the coming weeks, so the industry will be keeping a close eye out.

Check out the full conversation, below:


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