Wheat market fundamentals should buoy prices for the medium term

by

The wheat market isn’t usually the exciting one to watch, but as Ranulf Granville, chief market analyst with Grainfox, says over the last six to eight weeks there’s a lot of company that has started to gather on the bullish side making for some excitement.

But is wheat really in that much better a fundamental position than corn?

“I think the short answer is yes,” Glanville says, as ending stocks of the major exporting nations combined with projected output for the year suggests some tightening of supplies.

“It looks like some of the crops, particularly in Russia, which has been a real engine of exports onto the world market, over the past couple of years, it looks like that engine is slowing down,” he says, adding that Russia probably has about 10 million tonnes less wheat to export than the market thought they were going to have three or four months ago.

How does that work its way into the market here in North America? Glanville recaps the three futures markets — Minneapolis, Chicago and Kansas City — and how each is unique in fundamentals and who or what is driving price moves. U.S. and Western Canadian weather can have a significant impact on some of these futures, so watching crop conditions as the season unfolds will once again be key.

Listen to the full analysis below, and catch a brief canola market synopsis around the 11 minute mark:

Related: Excellent U.S. corn crop potential weighs on market prices

Wake up with RealAgriculture

Subscribe to our daily newsletters to keep you up-to-date with our latest coverage every morning.

Wake up with RealAgriculture

Please register to read and comment.

Privacy Preference Center

Necessary

Necessary cookies help make a website usable by enabling basic functions like page navigation and access to secure areas of the website. The website cannot function properly without these cookies.

gdpr, __cfduid, PHPSESSID, wordpress_test_cookie, woocommerce_items_in_cart, woocommerce_cart_hash, wp_woocommerce_session, wordpress_logged_in, wordpress_sec, wp-settings, wp-settings-time, __cf_mob_redir, wordpress_cache, realag
__cfduid

Marketing

Measuring interactions with the ads on the domain.

__gads,fsk_ut_2317
IDE

Statistics

These are used to track user interaction and detect potential problems. These help us improve our services by providing analytical data on how users use this site.

_ga,_gid,_gat,_cb,_chartbeat2,_chartbeat4
_ga,_gid
metrics_token

Preferences

Preference cookies enable the website to remember information that changes the way the website behaves or looks, like your preferred language or the region that you are in.

chartdefaults, comment_author, comment_author_email, comment_author_url
JSESSIONID, _os_session,anonymous_votes,csrf-param,csrf-token,user,user-id,user-platform,intercom-session,intercom-lou,intercom-session
personalization_id, tfw_exp

 

Register for a RealAgriculture account to manage your Shortcut menu instead of the default.

Register