With an unprecedented rail strike involving both CPKC and CN Rail possible as early as August 22, 2024, Canadian farmers are bracing for a major disruption in grain, fertilizer, and fuel movement unlike anything ever seen before.
In July, RealAgristudies asked Canadian farmers about their overall level of concern regarding a potential strike. Eighty per cent of Western Canadian farmers are extremely or somewhat concerned while 56 per cent of Eastern Canadian farmers feel the same.
RealAgristudies cross-referenced farmers’ level of concern with the rail strike against how they feel about their financial performance in the July 2024 Canadian Farmer Sentiment Index. Of farmers who feel they will be better off financially in the future, 20 per cent are extremely concerned about a rail strike. In comparison, 37 per cent of farmers who feel they will be worse off financially are extremely concerned. Clearly, this impending strike is having an impact on future farm financial performance, with 79 per cent of worse-off future farm financial performance respondents either extremely concerned or somewhat concerned about the rail strike.
An interesting cross tabulation was that when we look at the relationship of pace of crop marketing in comparison to prior years against concern regarding the strike, we see a difference. Farmers that are ahead of previous years in terms of amount of crop sold as of July are more concerned about the strike (77%) than farmers that are on pace with prior years (69%) or behind previous years (68%).
As expected, if you are holding 2023 crop unsold on farm still you are more likely concerned about the strike except for those holding over 40 per cent of their 2023 inventory still who are just as concerned as a farmer with no 2023 inventory at this time.
Whether it is getting grain to ports, equipment into the country or fertilizer to the retailer, rail plays an integral role in the operation of Canadian agriculture and the broader economy.
When it comes to how a rail strike would impact the marketing of the 2024 crop, farmers, 67 per cent of farmers see a significant or moderate impact. Only six per cent of Canadian farmers see no impact at all.
Whether a farmer believed that the commodity market is headed higher or lower has limited impact on how they think this strike would impact their marketing activities or their concern about the impact of the strike in general, the data shows.
Similar to concern about the strike, how a rail strike would impact marketing activities has a relation to how farmers feel about financial performance. Forty one per cent of those that feel worse off about their current financial performance see a significant impact to marketing activities while only 26 per cent of better off see a significant impact.
Finally farmers that are ahead of pace on crop marketing see a more significant impact to their marketing activities (49%) than on pace to prior years (29%) or behind previous years (28%).
If you this data sparks any further comments or questions please reach out by emailing [email protected], and on behalf of Justin Funk and myself, we thank the farmers that participate in our surveys in order to provide this kind of insight to the agriculture community.
