The Chinese government shared more details as it formally started its anti-dumping investigation into canola from Canada on Monday.
China’s Ministry of Commerce says the investigation, which was announced days after the Trudeau government unveiled steep tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, steel, and aluminum, is expected to take up to one year, with a September 9, 2025 deadline.
As with China’s anti-dumping probe into barley from Australia, the timeline for a decision on sanctions or tariffs could be extended by another six months in special circumstances.
In the Australian barley case, the Chinese government took nearly 18 months to investigate before imposing an 80 per cent tariff on Aussie barley, noted Chuck Penner of LeftField Commodity Research, in this interview last week.
While canola futures tumbled with news of the Chinese investigation last week, the timeline announced Monday means tariffs on Canadian canola are not imminent. Some analysts have also raised questions about whether China can afford to implement tariffs, as Chinese processors could struggle to find supply elsewhere if imports from Canada are restricted in the future.
China’s commerce ministry says the investigation will focus on whether canola from Canada was “dumped” in the Chinese market from January 1, 2023 to December 31, 2023, while also assessing damage to the domestic industry dating back to January 1, 2021.
The ministry says it has preliminary evidence of dumping because rapeseed (or canola) originating from Canada was exported to China “at a price lower than normal value,” hurting domestic businesses. It also says the investigation was self-initiated by the government, not at the request of domestic industry.
Interested parties have 20 days to register and submit comments to the Chinese Ministry of Commerce’ Trade Remedy Investigation Bureau.
“We are engaged and in close communication with government officials regarding the implications of the investigation and Canada’s participation and response to it, including the need for a coordinated approach and support for the Canadian canola industry,” says Chris Davison, Canola Council of Canada (CCC) president and CEO, in a statement.
Canadian canola seed exports to China rose from 2.2 million tonnes in 2022 to nearly 4.6 million tonnes in 2023, after China lifted a three year embargo on imports from Canada’s two largest exporters — Richardson and Viterra.
China banned canola imports from the two companies from March 2019 to May 2022 following the arrest of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou on a U.S. extradition request in Vancouver.
In 2018, the last calendar year prior to the 2019-2022 embargo, 4.8 million tonnes of Canadian canola were shipped to China, according to Statistics Canada.
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