In a world where a laptop or cellphone usually travels thousands of miles before it’s used, what does it mean to trade when electronic devices are made to explode en masse?
Jacob Shapiro, head of geopolitical and macro research for Bespoke Group, isn’t exaggerating when he likens this week’s electronic-based attack in Lebanon as a “crossing of the Rubicon” in Middle Eastern tensions. It also has much broader impacts on global trade norms, he says.
In this episode of Frontlines, Shaun Haney and Shapiro explore the strategic and ethical dimensions of Israel’s tactics, questioning their long-term benefits and the potential for retaliation. The conversation shifts to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, highlighting Ukraine’s offensive into Russian territory and the potential impact on agricultural production. They also touch on the upcoming U.S. election, emphasizing the protectionist economic policies of both major parties and their implications for U.S.-Mexico trade relations.
A full summary is below the player. Listen now or download for later!
- What do exploding pagers really mean for geopolitics and trade? Possibly more than you think
- This move may be strategic by the Israeli intelligence services (if that’s who is behind it), but there are questions on the long-term strategic gains of the move
- Shapiro says there are broader implications of the suspected Israeli operation, suggesting it breaks global norms and taboos
- There are concerns about the impact on global trade and supply chains, questioning whether companies need to ensure their devices are not tampered with
- Haney and Shapiro discuss the potential impact on the U.S.-Israel relationship, with Germany already suspending weapons exports to Israel
- Shapiro draws parallels to cybersecurity and state-on-state hacking, noting the lack of a clear analogy for the Israeli operation
- He points out the challenges of protecting supply chains and the potential for nefarious actors to exploit interconnectedness
- Shifting to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Shapiro explains Russia’s strategy of outlasting Ukraine and Ukraine’s counteroffensive into Russian territory
- The potential impact of the war on Ukrainian agricultural production will only really be known this fall and winter, with Shapiro predicting a significant decline
- Haney and Shapiro discuss the broader geopolitical implications, including the potential for Ukraine to cut Russia off from Crimea and the impact on global trade
- In American, both major parties are focused on protectionism and America-first policies
- What’s the potential impact on U.S.-Mexico trade relation?
- Increased protectionism drives home the importance of diversifying trade markets and building relationships with countries outside of traditional trade blocs
- Shapiro notes the global trend is towards self-sufficiency in various sectors, including technology and agriculture
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